Nate asked me to take a look at BDY as a potential buy. I rarely do counter-trend trades but I can see a decent reward:risk play here off of a potential double bottom. This chart looks like a Duru special though — he used to always point out charts like this to me just to hear me say “ugh!!!”… and then he’d proceed to catch a nice bounce.
Maybe he’ll chime in on this one…




Mike knows I can’t resist a call to comment as I love to talk like I know something. This is definitely a “Duru special”, but certainly I have to look beyond the charts to excuse my bad behavior. First, the double-bottom is mildly encouraging and a break below that would blow up my excuse. Second, there is some large short-interest here, so a sharp bounce *could* happen at anytime some good news comes out. And what could that news be? Well, BDY got slammed because of the threat of generic competition on a drug that STILL has a patent pending. Analysts were quick to slam this bad boy too. I have followed this stock for a while (but rarely found myself crazy enough to touch it), and I have noticed that it is quite a battleground of dueling opinions: bulls think the stock is cheap for its prospects, and bears think the company is crap based on things like this generic competition and what they see as a lack of an exciting pipeline. Analysts have battled it out in kind. The next stop *should* be some crack analyst who finds some magical opportunity at these levels. So, I decided to pull down some July calls and just wait and see. The price of the calls represent my stop loss. Now Mike can REALLY say “ugh!” Thanks for the analysis, Mike!
Well damn, now I want to buy some!
Excellent analysis- Altho a double bottomcan many times turn into a grand bullish run-Id really like to see more of an upward swing with that second bottoming -and as u say a lil more volume.
Not that analysts call it right but 3mos ago it was rated a strong buy and now a hold- is it ready to turn?-Andrews pitchferk- a fave of mine seems to indicate bearishness but that aint everything- Id like to see some time and this co.’s products either siz or fiz-
Let some brief lil time tick off and play its relatively cheap call options if its indicated
Its short interest is starting to inc and as contrarian could be a good bu move- not quite convinced me just yet- but good one to consider
I say if Mike buys, everyone’s gotta buy.
P.S. I forgot to mention that the reason for going with calls instead of shares is because if the massive amount of shorts turn out “right” in the near-term, no telling how deep an overnight collapse could go once the double-bottom support breaks. Calls greatly improve the risk/reward profile.