Posted by 2 March 2005

Watchlist for March 2, 2005

The indices are at important levels once again. As you’ll see on the charts below, the S&P is threatening to break out above the 2005 highs and the Nasdaq, which is sucking wind comparatively, is approaching its 50-day moving average.

Currently holding:

Long – ADBE, NVT, PARL

Short – None

Looking for swing trade entries in:

Longs – BEBE, CPRT, MGG, TSCO, URBN, USU

Shorts – USG, PLMO

Potential day trades:

(From Briefing.com)

Gapping Down

Gapping Down on disappointing earnings/guidance: TIBX -17% (multiple downgrades), LEA -16% (also Morgan Stanley downgrade), LONG -16%, OPSW -11.4%, KTO -11% (also SunTrust downgrade), VRTY -10.6% (also RBC downgrade), NVLS -3.9%, COST -2.2%…. Other News: RMBS -10.6% (patent claims vs. Infineon dimissed), ESLR -3.2% (profit taking after 22% move yesterday), CME -3% (cut to Hold from Buy at Sandler O’Neil).

Gapping Up

CYTO +12.5% (buying ahead of FDA panel review; CNBC mention this morning… see Briefing.com preview of event from yesterday), NKTR +7% (PFE and SFA announces that FDA has accepted for filing a new drug application for Exubera; NKTR receives Exubera royalties), PKTR +3.4% (Smith Barney upgrade), ASKJ +2.4% (chosen to power Lycos.com search)… Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: CDIC +5.6%, TTN +5.2% (also BB&T upgrade), AEOS +3.7%, IRM +3.6%, PSUN +2.3%…. Stem cell stocks are strong: VIAC +5.3% (started with an Outperform at CSFB; tgt $14), GERN +3.8% (co and Hong Kong’s Biotech Research form alliance), ASTM +3.1%…. Under $3: FMTI +14% (European approval), ARTX +13.5% (guidance), LOUD +9.8% (reports Q4), SYNC +9.1% (teams with Sony Ericsson and Ingram Micro to provide mobility solution), EDGR +3.4%.

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Comments

  1. Posted by Dave on March 2, 2005 at 10:59 am

    What PCFs do you use to identify your list of potential shorts? I’m referring to the list of 100-200 that you eyeball daily under the heading How I Find My Trading Candidates and Execute. Thanks!

  2. Posted by Michael on March 2, 2005 at 11:45 am

    Most of the shorts that I find are from a bearish candlestick scan. Usually shooting stars, bearish engulfings, doji, or bearish harami. Here’s some more info about my scans.

  3. Posted by Dave on March 2, 2005 at 11:59 am

    Excellent posts. What’s you’re opinion on backtesting? Did you do it when you came up with your system? Thanks!

  4. Posted by Michael on March 2, 2005 at 12:11 pm

    I’ve never done any backtesting, so I guess that makes me a non-believer. :-)

  5. Posted by Dave on March 2, 2005 at 1:13 pm

    Ever thought about it? Why haven’t you? Just curious.

  6. Posted by Michael on March 3, 2005 at 8:19 pm

    No, I’ve never given it much thought. I can’t say why… just never saw the need.