Watchlist for October 12, 2005

We had yet another distribution day yesterday as the Nasdaq joined the Dow and S&P 500 by closing under its 200-day moving average. The NDX/QQQQ got real close to its 200 DMA yesterday but managed to stay above it. So I think that line and yesterday’s low in the NDX will be key to watch. Here’s a chart of the Nasdaq:

Oil inventories are postponed until tomorrow due to the holiday on Monday.

Potential swing trades:

See one of the recent ‘Chart Reading‘ posts for some potential swing candidates.

Potential day trades:

(From Briefing.com)

Gapping Down

AAPL -6.8% (beats by $0.01, but disappoints on iPod shipments; down in sympathy: PLAY -7.4%, SNDK -2.7%, GLW -1.9%), AMD -4.4% (beats by $0.01, but some see concerns for 2006; also, profit taking as stock is up 60% since May), VICL -17% (prices offering at $4.80/sh), RFX -8% (extends week-long selling), SKIL -4.7%, RNWK -2% (profit taking after 34% move yesterday), INTC -1.6% (in sympathy with AMD; Prudential downgrade)… Bird Flu stocks seeing some profit taking after huge moves: NVAX -6.1%, CRXL -2.7%, BCRX -2.1%.

Gapping Up

ICOS +13% (positive phase 2 clinical data), HDI +7% (reports Q3, beats by $0.06, reaffirms guidance, — also see Options Activity comment yesterday), FAST +6% (reports Q3), ENWV +5.4% (says it is unsure it will continue with offering), CESV +8%, JOSB +4.6% (to be added to S&P 600), PFE +5.3% (positive Lipitor ruling), VRTX +3% (Bear Stearns upgrade), ASML +2.8% (reports Q3), GM +2.1% (Deutsche upgrade), SU +1.7%, CHK +1.7%, RIMM +1.5% (stock buyback)… Under $3: USEY +102% (to acquire energy assets), ENMD +13% (clinical data).

Intraday Updates:

  • 09:39 Looks like DNA wants to close yesterday’s gap
  • 10:07 Once again the A/D line is negative so it’s hard for me to look at the long side here…
  • 10:13 Hmm, AAPL is interesting right here — it’s testing 50, which should be resistance, right before the big “one more thing” announcement. Could be setting up for another disappointment…
  • 10:17 The heaviness in the tape continues today. That little surge in the Nasdaq got stomped with a quickness. Even though, I see almost nothing that I’m willing to short given how oversold the market is.
  • 10:30 Strike what I said about AAPL earlier, I had the time of the announcement wrong. But 50 shoul dstill be resistance…
  • 10:58 The NDX (QQQQ) is now under its 200-day moving average. Welcome to bear territory!
  • 11:50 A/D line is about 1 to 3 now. Tough to be long in this environment
  • 1:16 Here’s the ‘big’ AAPL news (yawn!): From Briefing.com –13:12 AAPL Apple Computer introduces new iMac model, has video camera built in, thinner than last year’s all-in-one model – Bloomberg (49.13 -2.46)
  • 1:31 iPod Video just announced… PLAY getting a little pop

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Comments

  1. Posted by Shawn M. on October 12, 2005 at 10:25 am

    The APPL annc. is set to begin at 10 PST not Eastern. Thus, 1pm EST.

  2. Posted by Michael on October 12, 2005 at 10:30 am

    Thanks for the correction Shawn. Did you manage to hang on to it?

  3. Posted by txtrader on October 12, 2005 at 12:27 pm

    Looks like the bears are winning. :-) I still don’t think the market is that oversold yet.The dow ($INDU) isn’t even down that much,but I could be wrong.

  4. Posted by ShawnM. on October 12, 2005 at 2:57 pm

    Yes, MIke I sold half around 49.5 about 10:30 and the other half at 49.8 about 1pm “speculation” and went short with a daily high stop of 50.30. I figured that the gap was closed as much as it is going to and AAPL should resume back down to test lows. “Sell the news”