Obviously the Nasdaq gap down this morning is largely due to Google, which, by the way, is having that “ball under water” effect again. I wonder if $400 can be a cap this time.
Potential swing trades:
Longs:
Shorts:
See one of the recent ‘Chart Reading‘ posts for some potential swing candidates.
Potential day trades:
(From Briefing.com)
Gapping Down
Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: GOOG -9% (also UBS downgrade), LTON -20% (guidance only), PXLW -12% (also CFO resigns), THOR -13% (also First Albany and Lazard downgrades), SGTL -13% (also Amtech downgrade to Sell), ZHNE -9%, ACTU -8%, JBLU -5.7%, FLEX -5.3% (also Amtech downgrade), SYMC -4.7%, PWAV -4.1%, WBSN -3.4%, CNCT -3.2%, MSTR -2.7% (also JMP Sec downgrade), MNST -1.3%… Other News: HNBC -12%, STL -8% (Harris Nesbitt downgrades to Underperform; tgt $17), DUSA -7% (clincal data), L -7.2%, RBAK -5%, REDF -3.5% (in sympathy with GOOG), COGO -3.4% (JMP Sec downgrade), NAPS -3% (profit taking after big move), SUF -3%, CC -2.8% (UBS downgrade), VCLK -2.8%, TRCI -2.6%, PEIX -2.3%, NDAQ -1.9%, NVDA -1.7% (UBS downgrade), VOD -1.6%.
Gapping Up
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: CLZR +19%, GORX +18%, SCSS +13%, CYMI +8% (also Pru upgrade), ASYT +6% (also Needham upgrade), CCJ +5% (also 2-for-1 split), BA +4.3%, ATML +3.8%, DUK +3.5%, DVN +2.8%… Other News: AMGN +8.5% (Roche’s competing anemia drug possibly being delayed), VICL +15% (opens phase 2 trial), NSTK +13% (development deal with PG), TSCM +5% (positive Avondale note), PNRA +4.6% (Jan comps), MGPI +3.4% (extends 50% move over the last month), BE +3.4% (files 2004 financial statements after review), FIF +2.4% (first day post split)… Clean energy stocks up on State of the Union speech: RTK +6.6%, HYGS +6%, DESC +5.6%, QTWW +4.4%, BLDP +4%, SATC +3.5%, ESLR +2.1%, BCON +2%, FCEL +1.9% (also selected for Dept of Energy program), PLUG +1.9%.
Disclaimer & How I use this list
Overhead supply / resistance defined by GOOG.
In the month of January, during regular exchange hours, 299 million shares of GOOG traded hands. Prices ranged from 394.74 to 475.11 (again regular hours). At least 258 million traded hands when the low price for the day was above 400. All 299 million traded hands when the high price was above 400. Given that GOOG only went below 400 on Jan 20, and had a high of 440.03 that day with 41 million traded, I think it’s probably safe to assume that at least 1/2 of those were traded above 400. So we probably have 280 million shares in January that are upside down.
If you expand that analysis to Nov 17 when GOOG first broke 400, there have been 597 million shares traded since then, with at least 502 million traded on days where the low was above 400. So let’s say 550 million for giggles.
GOOG only has 296 million shares outstanding. Given an average holding period of 1.2 months, I’m thinking that most of the recent buyers were momentum players that bought GOOG from other momentum players, meaning that they will be selling at any opportunity that allows them near breakeven.
I will be surprised if GOOG tops 400 soon, or stays above it for any length of time.