My outlook hasn’t really changed much from Thursday night. The Nasdaq had a strong day price wise on Friday but the volume was lacking. It’s threatening to pop to new highs but I’m always skeptical when indices / stocks just drift to new highs on low volume. The S&P and Dow had very quiet days with respect to price change and volume.
On another note, is it just me or do Fridays suck? It seems like the markets are usually lackluster on Fridays, except for the rare expiration Friday when we get a big move. I need to do some research to see if I’m right about that but it seems like I’m bored to tears every Friday. For a long time I’ve been considering switching to a 4-day week for trading. I’m going to do a beta test of that for the rest of the year. I think it may help me to be more focused Monday through Thursday and it will definitely give me more time to attend to other things.
Here’s an intraday chart of the Nasdaq last week (30 minute candles) showing the amount of time it just went sideways. They say the market goes sideways about 70% of the time and that was certainly the case last week. One could also argue that the Nasdaq went nowhere between 10:00 on Tuesday and 4:00 on Friday. (:|
And here are the daily charts of the Nasdaq and S&P 500
No changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Up | Up | Up |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
Mike,
I am sure someone has/is already submitted/ing this… but Friday was a Holiday, right? Veteran’s Day? And of course, on holidays where the market is still open… volume is much lighter than on regular market days. I know you are very aware of this given your experience.
That being said, even though the market has largely been trending sideways recently… I have found there are still plenty of opportunities and I would assume could be easily profitable for a daytrader because of the shorter time frame.
Thanks for the great blog and your valuable insights,
Muaad
On a weekly basis, last week’s volume on the S&P 500 was more than 10% higher than the 60-week average; last week had a nice bullish belt hold and higher volume than the week before (which was a down week; we may be overstretched but I don’t think we can volume was “light” other than on Friday, which was a “holiday” i.e. business observance of VD. Good reason for lighter volume as many people had Friday off.
Oh, fooey, I forgot to include the chart link.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18950384906
Friday was a tough day to trade imo. I was long and looking for more longs and that made for a very tough day. The market direction was pretty much down all day up until 2:00 when the DOW Fut’s finally started to rally from the 12100 area. DOW fut’s closed the day in the 12135 area and then after they reopened went on up to 12150. As I type this the Fut’s are down 10 or so to 12124.
Thx
Kilo
Perhaps it is the state of the trader that is poor come Fridays. After a long week, we are understandably tired and less focused. I tend to jump stops on Fridays on perfectly decent trades that would have turned profitable.
This Friday, a short trade in EZPW triggered via the hourly chart in the afternoon, and the first question I asked myself was, did I have any remaining stamina to take the trade on. I did this time and took it, and it worked. But most of the times, my reply is, no, you sure don’t have the stamina, so forget about it and start the weekend early.
Fridays do suck. I’ve backtested several strategies and even though they may not lose money on Fridays, Friday is usually the worst day of the week by far with Monday being the second worst day. Obviously it depends on what your strategies are and your actual results over time but I personally went to a four day week two months ago and I know many other traders who have also.
It’s not just you Mike, Friday’s have always been my weakest day. Psychologically, I like to end the week on a high note, but Friday’s rarely offer much opportunity.
Maaud — Yes, Friday was a holiday, Veteran’s Day, although it wasn’t observed by everyone. For example, the Post Office was closed on Saturday, not Friday. But yes, that probably does account for the light volume. But I think my point is still valid about that particular Friday not meaning much b/c of the volume and it also doesn’t disprove my thoughts about Fridays generally being lackluster.
Kilo — those tight-range days always are tough for me to trade. That’s why I try to avoid them if possible.
Michelle — so true… I’m often beat down by Friday although I usually feel it after the close on Friday, not in the morning. But every Friday morning I always wonder who’s gonna step up and initiate new positions ahead of the weekend. Seems like very little happens on Fridays besides squaring of existing positions.
Bill & Jamie — thanks for letting me know that I’m not making this all up.