I’ll characterize today’s rally as a technical bounce. The indices dropped early but the buy programs kicked in (take a look at $TICK this morning) as soon as the S&P 500 tagged its 50-day moving average. We chopped around for the rest of the morning and the noon Philly Fed release didn’t seem to have much immediate effect. But perhaps people needed an hour to decipher it because buying kicked in around 1 PM. Volume was pretty close to yesterday’s levels.
We got our S&P 50-day moving average retest, so now what? I wish I knew. I’ll just consider the S&P range-bound until it can break either the June high or the June low.
The Nasdaq looks a bit stronger than the S&P since it did make a higher high last week. It looks like a fill of Friday’s gap is all the bears are gonna get for now. ( Declan has a good chart of the SOX, which rallied 3% today to a new high. That’s huge support for the Nasdaq.)
The Russell had a successful 50 DMA retest. But like the S&P, I consider it range-bound until the June extremes are broken.
I probably should switch the S&P and Russell’s short-term trends back to “up” but I’m going to leave them at “lateral” for today. Let’s see if we get any follow-through to push the indices a bit more above their 10-day moving averages.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Up | Lat(+) | Lat |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
That bounce off the fiddy was like magic… Amazing how that works.
Duru, I am with you on that fiddy bounce. Amazing!
In the meantime, good vibes to Dr. Brett.
damn those pesky technical traders!