Note: I’m taking Thursday & Friday off in “celebration” of options expiration. Look for normal posting to resume on Tuesday (Monday’s a market holiday).
The short-term picture looks better after today’s rally. The indices broke their 10-day moving averages and pushed into last week’s gaps which were caused by those bad ISM Services numbers. The one thing missing from today was a volume surge. So it still doesn’t feel like there’s any enthusiasm behind this move higher.
For now I consider the last 4 weeks of trading to be nothing but chop — we’re basically right where we were 19 sessions ago. The bulls can break us out of that chop by breaking the February highs. That would produce a pattern of higher-lows and higher-highs. But I can’t see that happening unless we get some more volume.
All the short-term trends got upgraded today.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Down | Down | Down |
| Intermediate | Down | Down | Down |
| Short-term | Up(+) | Up(+) | Up(+) |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
*** I’m simply using the indices’ relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.
Several of the major broad indices that haven’t already broken down are today 2/14 back down to being only 1-3% over their last remaining year plus support lines, as was the SPX at 1380 as I noted 2/4, before it broke the next day closing down over 40 below 1340.
Small 7 day coil-breakout-reversals evident today in SPX, NYA and RUT (among others) -always threatening – combined with today’s very unstable ZERO MC oscillator – followed by just 1 more bad day will demonstrate to me the markets are looking across the valley alright – and seeing a mirage – and that the next discounting of earnings may be the bigger 5-10% downward step to the Jan lows, and for some indices, lower 2008 lows, more clearly defining the unfolding bear market downtrend.
We’re gonna test the lows.
But we should get better after April tax time.
Solars and alternative energy bull market has been estimated to be 4x bigger than the Internet Bubble. Get ready…it’s gonna be really fun.
Beanieville
What a theme! I am so tempted to use it but I like to be different than others. We’ll see if I can find something similar. It looks good!
thanks Chris