Today was almost a replay of yesterday’s session minus the last two hours of selling. The Nasdaq climbed back above its 200-day moving average and was able stay above through the end of the day. The other indices are perched just below their 200s and look poised to follow in the Nasdaq’s footsteps. I would have liked to have seen stronger volume today, especially on the Nasdaq. I prefer to see these breaks of resistance happen on a big volume surge. It’ll be interesting to see what effect tomorrow’s options expiration has on both price and volume.
I’m going to call the Nasdaq’s long-term trend lateral for now. I’ll upgrade it again if it can keep moving above the 200-day moving average for a few days.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primary | Lat(+) | Down | Down |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Up | Up | Up |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
*** I’m simply using the indices’ relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.
“I prefer to see these breaks of resistance happen on a big volume surge.”
By the time all your favorite signals say “BUY”, it would be time to sell, ok? So keep on waiting and let us know when the charts finaly show you (and every other amateur technician) what you prefer to see, ok?
Actually, my favorite buy signal(s) — reversal candlesticks — usually get me in nice & early.
As far as I’m concerned, low volume approaches to and/or breaks of resistance are a big warning sign of a reversal. So once again, I’ll take that as an early signal to go the other way (short or taking profits if I was already long).