Today was one of the least volatile days we’ve had in almost two weeks yet the S&P gained almost 5%. That kind of move is usually a rare thing but it’s tame for this market. Volatility is slowing drying up — 67% of my universe of stocks made NR7s today. You can also see that in the VIX which dropped 24% today and closed below its 10-day moving average for the first time since August.
The Nasdaq had an inside day today as stayed right near the middle of the wide range it’s been in for the last two weeks.
The S&P looks like it’s working on a symmetrical triangle, although I’m not sure where to draw the top trendline yet. The line I drew is just a guess. If this does indeed turn out to be a symmetrical triangle it’s likely bad news for the bulls since those are often continuation patterns.
Ditto for the Russell
All the short-term trends are up
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long-Term | Down | Down | Down |
| Intermediate | Down | Down | Down |
| Short-term | Up(+) | Up(+) | Up(+) |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
*** I’m simply using the indices’ relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.
I agree Mike…we are going to chop back & forth to form a pennant over the coming days/weeks.
My guess is when we start to get a peek at the next round of economic #’s we’ll break out of the pennant. I suspect the breakout will be lower because the #’s will come in worse than expected.