Some Charts I’m Watching

As I type this we’re set for a bounce this morning. Many traders would prefer to see a weak morning followed by a strong close in order to hopefully flush out the last of the sellers. It doesn’t seem like that going to happen today. Anyway, here are some charts I’ll be watching closely over the next couple of days. First are the indices followed by some individual stocks:

The S&P broke Thursday’s support very late in the day Friday as buyers walked away ahead of the weekend. I’ll be watching Thursday’s low today as an important inflection point.

I’m watching last week’s lows for support on the Nasdaq.

QQQQ is trying to hold above its 50-day moving average.

You know I’m not one to bottom fish but a couple of these new private equity / hedge fund (or whatever they are) issues look interesting now. Here’s The Blackstone Group L.P. (BX):

Fortress Investment Group LLC’s (FIG) IPO price was $18.50 and it opened at $35. It broke the IPO price by 8 cents on Friday before bouncing. If you really wanted in this IPO and missed it now may be your chance…

Satyam Computer (SAY) had a nice little retracement post-earnings.

Not surprisingly, Intel Corporation (INTC) looks a lot like the Nasdaq-100 / QQQQ right now.

Kinetic Concepts, Inc. (KCI) is another post-earnings pullback play.

For good measure, here are today’s gappers:

Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: NGA +5.8%, CCJ +4.0%… M&A related news: RCCC +34.8% (to be acquired by MOT for $45 per share in cash), FUN +5.4% (NY Post reports that FUN enters into takeover talks)… Other news: GPCB +16.8% (SAP founder Dietmar Hopp raised stake to 14.5% from 10.1% –, TMY +12.9% (provided update of strategic sales process and field status), VVUS +10.0% (receives FDA approval of Evamist NDA; eligible to receive milestone payment of $140 mln from KV.A), IR +7.5% (to sell its Bobcat, Utility Equipment and Attachments business units for $4.9 bln; stock was also upgraded at Citigroup, downgraded at Baird), HRT +6.3% (announces a 5-Year supply agreement), CVTX +4.8% (engages investment banker Frederick Frank to provide advisory services), HOKU +4.3% (still checking for news).

Gapping down: Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: VCLK -21.3%, RSH -7.1%… Other news: AHM -42.9% (delays payment of quarterly common stock and Series A & B preferred stock dividends, says co has received significant margin calls; stock was subsequently downgraded at RBC and JMP), LOOP -4.0% (downgraded at TWP), CSG -3.5% (continued pressure after co extended the timetable for the $7 bln sale of its U.S. drinks business), ELN -3.3% (still checking for any news).


  1. Posted by JOSEPH on July 31, 2007 at 9:46 am

    Can anyone recommend a site that lists ROIC (return on invested capital)for publicly traded stocks?

    Thank you in advance!

  2. Posted by Sutton Keany on August 1, 2007 at 9:30 am

    Michael –
    Re “Some Charts …”
    Clever piece. Interesting to read someone who does not just repeat what everyone else is saying … and provides his basis for his position.
    The rating groups seem to go your way with respect to PE.

  3. Posted by Keith Shepard on August 3, 2007 at 3:30 pm

    03 Aug. 07 – Looks like a lot of pain for the Bulls today. Energy, Materials & Financials all getting taken out and shot. (SPY) is breaking down through the 200 EMA.

  4. Posted by Henrik Soke on August 4, 2007 at 4:51 am

    A well researched post. I was only looking at (weekly) 3 year charts of S&P, DJIA and NASDAQ. S&P looks the worst (judging by the Force Index, Volume and MACD Histogram), but the other two also indicate, that we could experience some further declines.